目的：建立并评估儿童Ⅱ期人工晶状体(intraocular lens,IOL)植入术后青光眼相关不良事件(glaucoma-related adverse events,GRAEs)的预测模型。方法：选取于中山大学中山眼科中心行Ⅱ期IOL植入术的无晶状体眼患儿205例(356眼)，并在术后对其随访3年。采用Cox比例风险模型确定GRAEs的预测因子，并建立列线图预测模型。采用随时间变化的受试者工作特征(receiver operating characteristic,ROC)曲线、决策曲线分析、Kaplan-Meier曲线评估模型性能，并通过Bootstrapping的C指数和校准图进行内部验证。结果：行Ⅱ期IOL植入术时年龄较大(HR=1.50, 95% CI: 1.03 ~2.19)、术后一过性高眼压(HR=9.06, 95% CI: 2.97~27.67)和IOL睫状沟植入术(HR=14.55, 95% CI: 2.11~100.57)是GRAEs的危险因素(均P<0.05)，并据此建立了两个列线图预测模型。在术后1、2、3年，模型1的ROC曲线下面积(area under curve,AUC)分别为0.747(95% CI: 0.776 ~0.935)、0.765 (95% CI: 0.804 ~0.936)和0.748 (95% CI: 0.736~0.918)，模型2的AUC分别为0.881 (95% CI: 0.836 ~0.926)、0.895 (95% CI: 0.852 ~0.938)和0.848 (95% CI: 0.752~0.945)。在内部验证和评价中，两种模型均表现出良好的性能和临床净效益。Kaplan-Meier曲线显示两个不同的风险组在两个模型中都能被显著且稳健地区分。此外，本研究也构建了在线风险计算器。结论：两种列线图均能灵敏、准确地识别Ⅱ期IOL植入术后GRAEs的高危患儿，有助对其进行早期识别和及时干预。

Aims: To establish and evaluate predictive models for glaucoma-related adverse events (GRAEs) following secondary intraocular lens (IOL) implantation in paediatric eyes. Methods: 205 children (356 aphakic eyes) receiving secondary IOL implantation at Zhongshan Ophthalmic Center with a 3-year follow-up were enrolled. Cox proportional hazard model was used to identify predictors of GRAEs and developed nomograms. Model performance was evaluated with time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, decision curve analysis, Kaplan-Meier curves and validated internally through C-statistics and calibration plot of the bootstrap samples. Results: Older age at secondary IOL implantation (HR=1.5, 95% CI: 1.03 to 2.19), transient intraocular hypertension (HR=9.06, 95% CI: 2.97 to  27.67) and ciliary sulcus implantation (HR=14.55, 95% CI: 2.11 to 100.57) were identified as risk factors for GRAEs (all p<0.05). Two nomograms were established. At postoperatively 1, 2 and 3 years, model 1 achieved area under the ROC curves (AUCs) of 0.747 (95% CI: 0.776 to 0.935), 0.765 (95% CI: 0.804 to 0.936) and 0.748 (95% CI: 0.736 to 0.918), and the AUCs of model 2 were 0.881 (95% CI: 0.836 to 0.926), 0.895 (95% CI: 0.852 to 0.938) and 0.848 (95% CI: 0.752 to 0.945). Both models demonstrated fine clinical net benefit and performance in the interval validation. The Kaplan-Meier curves showing two distinct risk groups were well discriminated and robust in both models. An online risk calculator was constructed. Conclusions: Two nomograms could sensitively and accurately identify children at high risk of GRAEs after secondary IOL implantation to help early identification and timely intervention.